How do you know if a concept is mature?

Modified from original Caltech/JPL

How do you know if that space mission idea or concept you were just pitched was created by AI hallucination last night?

1)        Does the physics make sense? You can’t fool physics.

2)        What CML is the idea or concept at?

NASA's Concept Maturity Levels (CMLs) are a standardized framework to measure and communicate the progress of a space mission concept. While similar to Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs), which focus on individual technologies, CMLs assess the maturity of the entire mission concept—including its science objectives, technical design, management, and cost. 

The 9 Concept Maturity Levels

The scale ranges from 1 to 9, guiding a mission from a basic idea to a fully defined design ready for implementation. 

• CML 1: Cocktail Napkin – Write initial science and/or exploration questions and high-level mission objectives.

• CML 2: Initial Feasibility – A notional design point is selected, key performance parameters are quantified, and first-order calculations confirm viability.

• CML 3: Trade Space – Exploration of architectural trades (spacecraft, ground system, mission) to evaluate impacts on performance, cost, and development/operations risk. Push the boundaries of the trades to find out where things break.

• CML 4: Point Design – A specific design and cost are selected from the trade space, defined down to major subsystems with acceptable margins.

• CML 5: Concept Baseline – Implementation approach is defined, including partners and testing plans. This level is required for a NASA Step 1 major proposal (Discovery, New Frontiers, etc.) or Mission Concept Review.

• CML 6: Initial Design – Detailed engineering and management elements are documented. This corresponds to a NASA Step 2 major proposal.

• CML 7: Integrated Baseline – Preliminary system requirements are documented, and technology demonstrations are performed.

• CML 8: PDR – Design and planning reached for a Preliminary Design Review.

• CML 9: CDR – Design and planning reached for a Critical Design Review.

The CMLs and process for maturing a concept can apply and be adapted broadly to technical work.

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20150007816

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094576521006378

https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/somd/space-communications-navigation-program/technology-readiness-levels/ - :~:text=Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) are a type,TRL rating based on the projects progress.